60% of voters sit in a political middle ground

Americans generally believe their political neighbors are far more extreme than they actually are. New data from Pew Research Center indicates that roughly 60% of the electorate falls into a messy middle ground, rather than the two warring camps often depicted in media.

The gap between perception and reality was on display in January when friends Shanna Berry and Alma Ong discussed the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Berry, a retired Air Force veteran and Trump supporter, told Ong, a liberal Buddhist, that she felt the end of the regime was necessary. She acknowledged the legal questions surrounding the move and the focus on oil but noted that many Venezuelans are happy. Ong, who initially expected a stark disagreement, was stunned by Berry’s nuanced view. She told Berry she agreed with everything she said. The exchange highlights how avoiding political talk can lead people to overestimate their differences.

Kristin Laurin, a psychology professor at the University of British Columbia, notes that this dynamic is common. She explains that people often fear conflict and avoid political discussions, which allows assumptions to grow. Laurin argues that politicians and social media algorithms amplify extreme voices to drive engagement, making perceived polarization far greater than actual polarization.

The April indictment of former FBI Director James Comey illustrates this overlap. The Department of Justice charged Comey with posting a photo of seashells that they claimed was a death threat against the president. Both Democrats and many conservatives expressed outrage. Jonathan Turley, a constitutional law professor at George Washington University, told Fox News, "I must be in a parallel universe to be talking about the shell art of James Comey." Stan Fletcher, a restaurateur in Maryland who voted for Trump all three times, said no one should be indicted for their opinion. Fletcher believes 95% of America falls under a bell curve of moderates, masked by loud voices on both ends.

Pew Research Center classifies Americans into nine groups based on values and attitudes. One group, the "Pragmatic and Polite Right," includes 56% Republicans or Republican-leaning voters and 37% Democrats or Democratic-leaning voters. This group places a high value on civility, holds conservative economic views, and takes more moderate stances on race and immigration. Jocelyn Kiley, who leads politics research at Pew, states that looking beneath party labels reveals significant variation and overlap. The ideological right, comprising the "No Apologies Right" and "Faith First Conservatives," makes up just 21% of the population. Kiley says the country is highly polarized, but there is also a lot of nuance underneath that division.

Pew has released a quiz to help individuals identify which of the nine political groups they belong to. The data suggests that while political division is real, the majority of voters share more common ground than the current narrative implies.