Bass Ties Raman in LA Mayoral Race as Pratt Voters Shift

Karen Bass has erased Nithya Raman's previous lead in the Los Angeles mayoral race, leaving the two candidates tied with 40 percent of likely voters. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Survey released Wednesday shows the contest is now a dead heat with 19 percent of voters undecided ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

The shift marks a sharp change from September, when Raman held an 11 percentage point lead. At that time, 39 percent of likely voters supported Raman while Bass trailed at 28 percent. The new data indicates Bass's surge is largely due to her winning over voters who cast ballots for Spencer Pratt in the June primary.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, identified Pratt voters as the key group driving the change. In the September poll, 22 percent of Pratt supporters said they planned to back Bass, while 16 percent favored Raman. In the October survey, Bass captured 41 percent of that group, while Raman's support dropped to 14 percent. Despite the shift, 45 percent of Pratt voters remain undecided. Pratt has not endorsed a candidate and continues to criticize both finalists on social media.

Raman also lost ground among Latino voters, a group where she previously held a wide advantage. In September, Raman led this constituency by 24 percentage points. In the new poll, Bass is at 40 percent and Raman is at 43 percent, placing them within the margin of error. DiCamillo noted that the likely voter population now includes more older Latinos, a demographic that tends to support Bass.

Bass solidified her support among Black voters, who are a core part of her coalition. Seventy-one percent of likely Black voters support Bass, compared with 13 percent for Raman. In September, Bass led this group 48 percent to 20 percent. The poll also shows Bass gaining traction in the San Fernando Valley, where she now leads Raman 44 percent to 33 percent, reversing a previous deficit.

The political battle has intensified with Bass's campaign attacking Raman over recent comments and appearances. Bass's surrogates have used the slogan that Raman is not ready for prime time. They cited a video where Raman urged viewers to stop fascist liars, a moment Bass's team argued showed Raman calling police officers fascists. Raman's spokesperson said the comment referred to the federal government, not the local police. The campaign also highlighted Raman attending a happy hour during immigration raids and her praise for former LAPD Chief Daryl Gates.

Voters cited reducing homeless encampments as the top priority for the next mayor, selected by 43 percent of respondents. Public safety and affordable housing were tied for second place at 29 percent each. Protecting immigrant communities followed with 21 percent, and balancing the city budget was chosen by 17 percent.