Mid-Tier Starters Outperform Top Draft Picks

The most expensive starting pitchers in fantasy baseball delivered their worst value in five years, forcing a major reshuffle of the 2027 draft hierarchy. According to a review published by CBS Sports on October 28, the top 24 starters by average draft position combined for just $227 in value last season. That figure falls short of the $259.1 minimum recorded in any of the previous four seasons from 2021 through 2025.

The underperformance was concentrated at the very top. Three pitchers went in the first round of most drafts, and all three missed expectations to some degree. Only eight of the top 24 starters by draft position finished the year inside the top 24 in overall value. In contrast, starters ranked 25th through 36th returned $155.6 in value, nearly matching the $158.94 earned by the top 12.

This mid-tier dominance is not a one-year fluke. The 25th through 36th group finished ahead of the 13th through 24th group in every season from 2022 through 2026. The analyst refers to this consistent pattern as the SP Dead Zone. Key contributors to the mid-tier surge in 2026 included Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler, Chase Burns, Sonny Gray, and Zack Wheeler.

Jacob Misiorowski was the standout performer. The Brewers right-hander posted a 1.80 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and 252 strikeouts in 174.1 innings. His 0.80 WHIP and 37.9% strikeout rate rank as the second-best in MLB history, excluding 2020. The review identifies him as the best pitcher in baseball, with no argument for selecting anyone ahead of him in 2027 drafts. Cam Schlittler of the Yankees followed with a 1.95 ERA and 239 strikeouts, securing a likely AL Cy Young award.

The top tier suffered notable busts. Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox had his season derailed after just six starts. Paul Skenes of the Pirates posted a 3.82 ERA and 200 strikeouts but saw his strikeout rate drop to 22% in the final two months. Other top-24 picks like Tyler Glasnow, Brandon Woodruff, and Blake Snell did not pitch enough innings to justify their draft positions.

Looking ahead to 2027, the analyst notes that the current class lacks the same depth of proven talent. Kade Anderson had a minimal impact in his debut, while roles for Didier Fuentes and Grant Taylor remain uncertain. Andrew Painter, Jackson Jobe, Noah Schultz, and Hagen Smith are expected to go around the 200th pick. Jared Jones and Walbert Ureña are highlighted as strong options due to their longer track records compared to last year's unproven group.

Rising values are expected for Drew Rasmussen of the Rays, who handled a career-high workload, and Jesús Luzardo of the Phillies. Zack Wheeler also moves up after returning from thoracic outlet surgery and finishing the season with a 1.67 ERA over his final six starts. Decliners include Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet, Blake Snell, Kyle Bradish, and George Kirby. Bradish ended his season early with a hernia after posting a 4.12 ERA.