Model Backs Steelers, Rams to Cover in Week 8

A betting model that simulates each NFL contest 10,000 times is picking the Steelers to cover a 3.5-point spread at home against the Browns and the Rams to cover 7 points against the Chargers. Both games are on the Week 8 schedule, which returns entirely to domestic matchups after a week of international play.

The Steelers are favored by 3.5 points with an over/under of 38.5 for the game in Pittsburgh. The model points to Pittsburgh's record in this specific series: the Steelers have beaten the Browns in 22 consecutive home games, a streak that started in 2004. Pittsburgh is 3-0 against the spread at home this season, while Cleveland is 2-2 on the road. The Browns rank 28th in scoring, and Pittsburgh has put up 30 or more points in each of its last two home games.

The Rams are 7-point favorites over the Chargers, with a total of 43.5, in the 4:05 p.m. ET game. The Chargers are the NFL's only winless team and have dropped nine straight games dating to last season. Over that span, quarterback Justin Herbert has thrown 12 turnovers against 6 touchdowns. Los Angeles is also winless against the spread during the nine-game skid. The model has the Rams covering in more than half its simulations and the Over hitting more than 60% of the time.

Other Week 8 lines carry double-digit or near double-digit spreads, including the Bengals giving 10 points to the Titans, the Jaguars giving 7.5 to the Colts, and the Patriots giving 7.5 to Miami. If the Patriots line holds, New England would be the third-biggest road favorite of the season. The Chargers are the only team without a win against the spread this year, while every other team has at least two such losses.

The model entered Week 8 of the 2026 season with a 58-51 record on top-rated picks since 2024 and has returned more than $5,000 for players betting $100 per game on those selections since it began operation.

The Rams and Chargers are scheduled to play at 4:05 p.m. ET.