Netanyahu bloc leads as Israel faces coalition math

Israel’s governing majority is gone as of Wednesday morning.

Counting officials reported that Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc held a narrow lead over the opposition bloc led by former general Gadi Eisenkot. Initial exit polls had predicted a victory for Eisenkot. Those projections faded as absentee ballots from deployed soldiers remained uncounted. With 70% of votes tallied, neither Jewish bloc reached the 61 Knesset seats required for a majority government.

Eisenkot declared a win for a Zionist majority before the count was complete. He appeared to rule out forming a government with Palestinian parties. That stance creates a difficult path forward. The two main Arab Israeli parties, the Joint List and Raam, are projected to win between 16 and 19 seats. This would be a record result for those groups. Eisenkot must choose between partnering with these parties or returning power to Netanyahu.

President Isaac Herzog will task one of the party leaders with forming a government within six weeks. If that effort fails, the mandate passes to the rival leader. Netanyahu will remain in a caretaker role until a new majority is established. He has suggested that a deadlock could lead to another election. He argued that diaspora Israelis who voted in high numbers on Tuesday might not return for a subsequent vote.

Donald Trump claimed credit for Netanyahu’s stronger-than-expected performance. He stated that his public endorsement helped the prime minister during the campaign. Trump said the result looked like it was heading toward a stalemate or a win for Netanyahu.

Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats party, urged Eisenkot to negotiate with the Joint List and Raam. Golan argued that ignoring Arab votes effectively surrenders to Netanyahu. He noted that Netanyahu relies on ultra-Orthodox parties that are non-Zionist and oppose conscription for their constituents. Golan posted on X that the opposition must stop being afraid and end racism to survive.

Yousef Jabareen, the Joint List leader, said his party’s strong showing means it cannot be ignored. He cited the actions of national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir as a reason for his party’s performance. Jabareen said the Joint List is ready to help oust the government of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Another official in the Joint List described the choice facing the opposition as a decision between supremacy and building democracy.

Noa Landau, a columnist for Haaretz, argued that Eisenkot fell into a trap set by Netanyahu. She wrote that Eisenkot used Zionism as a test for coalition partners while excluding potential allies. She noted that Netanyahu did not apply the same standard to his own far-right partners.

The election took place while Israel faces international accusations of genocide in Gaza and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank. Netanyahu is also wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes. Turnout reached 77.7%, the highest since 1999. The vote drew more serving military members than usual. The army vote has historically swung right, but a higher share of older, moderate reservists are currently on active duty.

Israel has held five elections between 2019 and 2022 due to political deadlock. Netanyahu has served for 19 of the last 30 years. He is currently entangled in a corruption trial. His campaign included a photo of a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv posted on the eve of the vote. Since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israel has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians in Gaza and expanded its military operations in the region.

Final vote counts may take several more days to complete. Absentee ballots from soldiers are the last to be tallied. The outcome will determine whether Israel heads to a unity government, a new election, or a fragile minority administration.