NPR correspondents assess polling reliability and key state races ahead of 2026 midterms

With Election Day approaching, political correspondents from NPR addressed listener questions regarding the reliability of recent surveys and the specific races that will determine the balance of power in Congress. Domenico Montanaro, the network's senior political editor, noted that while national polls have generally tracked the horse race accurately, they have slightly underestimated Republican turnout. He explained that a poll with a margin of error of plus or minus three or four percentage points represents a range of six to eight points, a width that often exceeds the actual margin of victory in close states.

Montanaro attributed recent state-level polling misses to the decline of local journalism, which has reduced the funding available for rigorous, frequent surveys. He warned that the market is filled with low-quality or even fake polls, making it essential for readers to scrutinize the pollster. He emphasized that the most valuable use of polling data is not in predicting specific margins, but in identifying trends in public opinion on key issues over time.

Beyond national polling, correspondents highlighted several state-level contests that will serve as critical indicators for the broader election results. Tamara Keith, a senior political correspondent, pointed to the chaotic race in Nevada's 2nd Congressional District. She described the Republican nominee as a Trump-backed candidate who recently moved to the district and blamed his grandchildren for a campaign misstep in an interview. The district, which President Trump won by 14 points, has not been represented by a Democrat in over 40 years, yet the incumbent Republican has openly supported a Libertarian in the primary and criticized his own party's nominee.

Ashley Lopez, another political correspondent, identified several ballot measures that could reshape electoral maps. In Maryland, voters will decide on a constitutional amendment that could allow Democrats to add a new congressional seat. In Missouri, a similar measure aims to help Republicans flip a seat. Colorado voters are weighing a proposal to restrict mid-decade redistricting, while Alaskans will vote again on retaining their nonpartisan primary and ranked choice voting system. Lopez noted that the Maryland measure is an outlier because it appears likely to fail in a state with a strong Democratic presence.

Montanaro also flagged the California wealth tax initiative, which has drawn tens of millions of dollars in spending. He suggested that the outcome would indicate whether California voters remain willing to support fiscal experiments. In Nevada, the governor's race pits incumbent Joe Lombardo against Attorney General Aaron Ford. Montanaro observed that the campaign has focused on crime and unemployment, but Ford has had to address personal legal history from his college years, forcing voters to weigh past mistakes against the current political climate.

The correspondents agreed that midterm elections often offer more intimate access to candidates than presidential cycles. Sam Gringlas, a congressional reporter, described covering candidates at antique shops, farmer's markets, and family farms, opportunities that allow for closer observation of voter interactions. These down-ballot races provide a clearer picture of local economic conditions and political sentiment than the high-profile contests for the presidency.

If Democrats take control of either chamber of Congress, the primary effect will likely be increased oversight and investigations of the executive branch, according to Montanaro. He noted that legislative progress is often stalled in split-government scenarios, except for issues with bipartisan support such as artificial intelligence guardrails. The president's party has gained seats in only two midterms since World War II, in 1998 and 2002, suggesting a strong historical trend toward a change in congressional leadership.