Vance's Midterm Strategy: A Preview of 2028

Vice President JD Vance is using his midterm campaign appearances to test a political message that looks forward to a potential 2028 presidential bid.

At a speech in Weatherford, Texas, on Thursday, Vance focused his criticism on Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico. Vance noted that Talarico had said he must grapple with his masculinity in addition to his whiteness. Vance told the cheering crowd, "Now James Talarico has also said that he really has to grapple with his masculinity in addition to his whiteness. And you know, James, the good news is, there ain't a whole lot to grapple with."

The speech occurred on the same afternoon that President Donald Trump addressed a crowd in Rock Hill, South Carolina. While Trump's style is often compared to a borscht-belt comedian, Vance adopted a more practiced political tone. Both speakers used themes of American greatness and criticized the opposing party's candidates.

Vance frequently invokes a nostalgic view of America from his youth. In North Carolina earlier in the week, he spoke about the sense of pride and unity Americans felt after September 11, 2001. In Howell, Michigan, he discussed how local small businesses sponsored his childhood football teams. "I distinctly remember looking in my old jerseys and seeing the names of the businesses that had sponsored those teams and realizing that most of the teams I played for, those businesses no longer existed," Vance said. He attributed the loss of these businesses to politicians in a faraway place who did not care about Michigan or Ohio.

This narrative frames working-class communities as victims of distant elites. Vance also leans into cultural issues, describing a time when children of working-class Black and white families played football together without worrying about skin color or privilege. This message offers a more traditional packaging of populist themes while occasionally incorporating casual language, such as telling the Texas crowd he was sweating his balls off at the podium.

A key challenge for Vance is supporting Republican candidates while the president remains unpopular. This difficulty is evident in how Vance handles economic issues driven by presidential policies. In Montana, he avoided directly mentioning the Iran War, which caused gas and diesel prices to rise. Instead, he described high fuel costs as a recurring result of global politics. "Remember in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and gas prices skyrocketed? They skyrocketed, by the way, far higher than they are today," Vance told the Montana audience. He listed similar spikes in 1979, 2001, and 2007.

Vance similarly addressed the high price of beef by blaming consolidation among meatpackers. This explanation sidesteps the anger that Trump's policies have caused among beef producers.

Vance also serves as the head of the president's anti-fraud task force, which aims to find malfeasance in social safety net programs. He uses this role to connect with voters through his personal history. In Cincinnati, he recalled working as a cashier at Dhillon Foods, a grocery store about 20 miles from the venue. He noted that many family members benefited from federal food benefit programs.

Vance's memoir about growing up in poor, rural southern Ohio gave him a platform that Trump lacks. It allows him to speak personally about military service and economic hardship. However, Trump's popularity stems largely from his bombast and unfiltered anger. The central question for any 2028 Republican candidate is how to fill the void left by Trump's unique performance in the hearts of GOP voters.