Redrawn House Districts See $132 Million Ad Spend Amid Tight Races

More than $42 million has been spent on advertising in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District since September 1, according to an NPR analysis of AdImpact data. That figure makes it one of the most expensive House races in the country. The state legislature redrew the district lines late last year to create a reliably Republican seat. Under the new map, President Donald Trump would have won the district by more than 11 percentage points in the 2024 election. Now, the race is widely considered a toss-up.

Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, said the redistricting effort has not produced the expected firewall for the party. "It just has not turned out that way," Gonzales stated. Republicans gained an advantage in 15 congressional districts nationwide, but many of those seats are proving difficult to hold. The party is now spending millions to win districts that were supposed to be easy victories.

Laurie Buckhout, the Republican nominee in NC-01, recently appeared on stage at a rally in eastern North Carolina. Buckhout is a retired Army colonel who lost in the district two years ago. She told the crowd that the math favors Republicans because there are more of them. "All you've got to do is get out the vote," Buckhout said. Trump, who headlined the event, described the race as tough. He said House Speaker Mike Johnson asked him to give Buckhout a special call out because she is facing a close race.

On the opposite side of the state, Jennifer Balkcom is running for NC-11. Trump mentioned both candidates during the rally, urging the crowd to vote for them. Buckhout and her team did not respond to requests to participate in this story. The high cost of the campaign reflects the uncertainty surrounding the new lines. Republicans and Democrats alike acknowledge that incumbent Democrat Don Davis is a formidable opponent.

Davis, who has represented the area for multiple cycles, is running on a third new map. His home county was drawn out of the district, and he now represents parts of six new counties. At an early voting location in Swansboro, Davis said he is hearing that affordability and inflation have become issues of survivability for farmers, truckers, and fishermen. "I just don't know how many other ways you could redraw it now," Davis joked. He noted that the constant changes make campaigning challenging.

Morgan Jackson, a North Carolina political consultant, said Republicans believed they had beaten Davis with the redistricting pen. Jackson noted that Davis is a local politician who runs strong. In Florida, two redrawn districts are nearing a combined $90 million in ad spending. In Texas, districts drawn with a 10-point Trump advantage have shifted toward Democrats. A Republican strategist said redistricting creates new battlefields but does not create outcomes. Jackson called the recent redrawing a dummymander rather than a gerrymander.