Rubio doubts quick Ukraine peace deal as G20 ministers split

Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed uncertainty on October 31 about whether a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine is achievable in the near term.

During the closing press conference of the G20 foreign ministers meeting in Atlanta, Georgia, Rubio said Washington is still determining if an agreement is possible. "I don't know if negotiated peace is achievable in Ukraine. That's what we're trying to find out," he stated. He added that no one in the room claimed the United States was on the verge of a settlement.

Three European officials who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity said Rubio privately shared his skepticism that President Vladimir Putin will attend the G20 leaders summit in Miami in December. The meeting is scheduled at Trump's Doral resort in Florida. Rubio publicly noted that Moscow had not confirmed the Russian leader's attendance. "I don't even know if President Putin is going to come to Miami," Rubio said. The European diplomats added that Rubio defended the administration's choice to invite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Atlanta, arguing that diplomatic engagement is necessary to reach a conclusion.

Rubio emphasized that the United States must maintain communication channels with Russia due to the danger of nuclear escalation. He stated that talking to a foreign leader does not amount to legitimizing their actions. While describing his interactions with Lavrov in Atlanta, Rubio noted that the two did not hold a formal meeting. They briefly discussed the possibility of their leaders interacting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering but made no firm commitments regarding the G20 summit. The European officials reported that Rubio also told Western counterparts that Ukraine's short-term NATO membership is unrealistic and that Russia's takeover of the entire Donbas region would not satisfy its territorial ambitions.

The Atlanta gathering revealed deep divisions between Moscow and European governments. Several delegations refused to participate in the traditional G20 family photograph because of Lavrov's presence, leading to the cancellation of the photo. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas accused Lavrov of presenting false narratives about the war. She told reporters that Russia does not appear ready for peace negotiations, citing the continued intensity of attacks on Ukraine. Lavrov criticized what he called Europe's arrogant boycott and praised the Trump administration's willingness to engage with Moscow.

Rubio identified a specific diplomatic objective that Washington hopes could yield results: a cease-fire covering the Black Sea. He noted that disruptions to grain and energy shipments are creating serious consequences for vulnerable countries dependent on food imports. "This is threatening the world for food security and some energy security as well," he said. Rubio said the United States is examining proposals from Turkey and that India has expressed interest in putting forward ideas. He cautioned against overstating the prospects, saying, "I wouldn't call it momentum," but described a growing interest among countries in acting as guarantors or facilitators.

The two-day ministerial meeting ended without a joint communique due to disagreements over Ukraine, the Middle East, trade, and maritime security. The US presidency issued a chairman's statement outlining shared priorities such as energy and food security, critical minerals, and supply chains. The document made no mention of Russia, Ukraine, or the war between them. Rubio estimated that around 20,000 Russian soldiers are being killed each month and warned that every additional month of fighting would make the eventual reconstruction of Ukraine more difficult. The Atlanta meeting was the final high-level G20 gathering before the leaders' summit in mid-December.