House Midterms: Ad spending data reveals the scale of the final week's battle

Ad spending data released in the final week of the 2026 midterm election indicates the primary question for voters is not whether Democrats will gain control of the House, but how large that majority will be. The financial commitment by both parties suggests a highly competitive environment rather than a foregone conclusion.

An NPR analysis identifies 70 districts where both the Democratic and Republican campaigns are investing at least six figures per district in final days of messaging. This expansive competitive field includes high-cost battles in Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida, where spending exceeds $10 million in toss-up districts. Additional seven-figure ad buys are concentrated in deep-red communities across Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

The latest ratings from the Cook Political Report find Democrats favored in 220 seats. The report lists 17 races as toss-ups and another 30 as potentially competitive but leaning toward the GOP. These numbers reflect a shift from the current Republican advantage of 218 seats to 214.

Most seats that saw narrow margins in the 2024 presidential election have shifted toward the Democrats. This includes ten districts that voted for one party's presidential candidate and the other party's House nominee. Specific races include those held by Democratic Representatives Adam Gray of California’s 13th District, Nellie Pou of New Jersey’s 9th District, and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez of Washington’s 3rd District. The district held by retiring Republican Representative Don Bacon in Nebraska’s 2nd District is also included in this group.

According to AdImpact data, Republicans have reduced ad reservations in all four of those specific districts in recent weeks. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats holding a 10-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead with likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. This polling data suggests a broad number of seats are competitive before accounting for candidate quality or outside spending.

Cost of living remains the top concern for voters. Rising gas prices, tariffs, and the ongoing war in Iran factor into economic concerns for many Americans. At the same time, a record number of congressional retirement announcements has been amplified by an anti-incumbency streak in primary elections. These dynamics contribute to the financial volume in the final days of the campaign.

A wave of mid-decade redistricting following a Supreme Court decision that rolled back part of the Voting Rights Act further scrambled the map. Republicans shifted boundary lines to add more conservative voters into districts held by Democratic Representatives Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Don Davis in North Carolina, Shomari Figures in Alabama, and Darren Soto in Florida. Democrats made similar changes in California for districts held by Republican Representatives James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, and Darrell Issa, as well as Independent Kevin Kiley.

Only Figures and Soto are in districts currently rated as favoring Republicans. Among the most expensive races are Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District, each with more than $12 million in planned spending. Other high-cost areas include Florida’s 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York’s 17th District, and Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd Districts.

The 70 races with at least six figures of ad spending from each party voted for Donald Trump by an average of nine points in 2024. Sixty districts are listed as priorities by both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms. This spending pattern highlights the impact of the Trump administration's unpopularity with voters over the last year.

Not every race will end up close or see party control change hands. Many of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's districts in play gave Trump closer to 60% of the vote in 2024. These specific races have seen little to no ad spend from either party in the final week.