Serbia's new government faces 14-year legacy of regional friction

Serbia’s opposition Student List defeated the Serbian Progressive Party in Sunday’s election, ending 14 years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic. The result marks a sharp break from the past, but analysts say the new government will spend its early months fixing internal problems before changing its foreign policy direction.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that relations with neighbors will not be the immediate priority. He noted that the previous regime captured democratic institutions, the judiciary, the prosecution service, the police, and the media sector. Popov argued that the new leaders must tidy up at home before solving problems with neighbors, even though the outgoing government worked to undermine regional ties.

Relations with Croatia remain the most difficult. Popov described the ties as not frozen but marked by frequent sharp words. He said Zagreb often fires a poisoned arrow at Serbia, giving Belgrade an argument to retaliate. This dynamic functioned on the production of internal and external enemies. In contrast, Popov identified a quiet convergence between Belgrade and Zagreb on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Belgrade backs Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik, while Zagreb favors a third entity.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the new government. He said many international and domestic structures shaping Serbian foreign policy will remain in place. Moscow never fully trusted Vucic but viewed him as the devil they knew. Russian influence will take a blow as Vucic-controlled tabloids and media end their uncritical glorification of Moscow. Intelligence cooperation is also likely to be downgraded.

Vuksanovic stated that Serbia will not adopt a hawkish stance toward Moscow overnight. The country still needs preferential gas prices, the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved, and parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West. Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. However, the question of ammunition deliveries to Ukraine remains uncertain, as the opposition viewed Vucic’s weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance for his domestic rule.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said ties with Israel will not be severed but will face scrutiny. The new government will re-examine newly concluded contracts, primarily those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu’s government has lost another authoritarian, nationalist ally in Europe following Viktor Orban’s removal in Hungary. Serbia’s future stance will also depend on the outcome of Israel’s own elections.

Popov suggested that the policy of sitting on multiple chairs, which brought Serbia more harm than good, will certainly be re-evaluated. He expects Belgrade to strengthen ties with the European Union. The previous government sabotaged EU integration, and the EU will not accept a country without good neighborly relations. The new government’s task will be to repair those damaged ties. The international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.